Abstract
The results of the Taiwanese Presidential Election on January 13, 2024, were decisive for the future of Taiwan's democracy. To study these issues, we deployed a conjoint survey 7 days before the election (January 5, 2024-January 12, 2024), focused on trade-offs in policy preference and attitudes toward misinformation drawn from large-scale computational analysis of online data. Results reveal three crucial findings. First, despite broad support for the winning party DPP's cross-strait policy, the DPP's energy policy garners very little support. This reflects a growing population even amongst supporters that view energy as a pragmatic security issue. Second, belief in US-Skeptical misinformation is widespread and is especially associated with pro-nuclear attitudes. This effect is observed most acutely with DPP supporters and independent voters. Third, we identify clear lines where US-Skeptical misconceptions increase significantly: between Taiwanese and Chinese identity, then between independence and the status quo. Finally, we discuss the viability of combining computational social science and survey approaches to generate rapid and ecologically valid political science research, as a methodological contribution.
Citation
Weener, Tracy, Herbert Chang, and Yusaku Horiuchi. 2024. “Beyond Cross-Strait Affairs: US-Skeptical Misinformation Shapes Policy Preferences in Taiwan’s 2024 Election.” Working paper. https://ssrn.com/abstract=5403961